TRUMP'S COMEBACK: PAINFUL CONSEQUENCES FOR THE MILITARY, ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC EUROPE

Strong resurgence of American isolationism: a defenceless Europe?

During the electoral campaign, candidate Trump left a doubt on the American military support to Europe in the framework of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Meaning the ending in fine of the American nuclear shield, the threat given by the elected president is about European states which have low military spendings. That is to say, countries which military credits are lower than 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP) will be left on their own in case of a Russian aggression.

However, this blackmail to money spending seems not to be addressed to Central and Eastern Europe which might be future victims to Russia in a mid-term period. These Eastern countries follow the 2% GDP rule faithfully, with Poland leading with 3.9% of it's GDP allocated to military budget in 2023. Baltic countries are also good students: their contribution is around 2.5% of their respective GDP. Neighbouring Russia with a 1340 kms-long border, Finland allocates 2.45% of its national wealth for the military field. The country joined NATO in April 2023 and elaborated a 4-year long plan to increase it's military budget by 40% between 2022 and 2026. But then, for whom is Trump’s ultimatum addressed? For Western European countries which contribute less in the defence budget than their Eastern neighbours in relative value. The part allocated to military spending in France, Germany, Italy and Spain is under the bar of 2% with respectively 1.9%, 1.57%, 1.46% and 1.26% of their GDP. Trump, with his joke, wishes to skin “belligerent” speeches made in Occidental Europe. A threat which concerns European countries less affected by the Russian threat. In a nutshell, a sword of Damocles in plastic…

Regarding the war in Ukraine, elected President Trump wants to suspend financial help brought to the aggressed country for more than 2 years. During his meetings and interviews, he positioned himself in favour of ending the conflict in a short-term period. This is not an advantage for Ukraine which would have to give up territories: Crimea, Donbass or even the South-Eastern part of the country currently occupied. During eventual bargains with Russia, Ukraine might have to process to never become a member of NATO or the EU. The withdrawal of the US would fragilise the stability of the European continent by legitimizing the use of force.

Trump’s convinced climate scepticism: a fragilisation of climatic diplomacy

“Drill, baby, drill”, a slogan which sums up in a few words the energy and climate policies planned by Donald Trump’s return to the White House. He plans to withdraw once again from the Paris Agreement and wants to keep his promise to restore an “American energy dominance”, by putting back the use of fossil fuels and stimulating the extraction of American petrol and gas. The US already has a nice energy hit list: 1st place in terms of petrol production and 2nd place for greenhouse gas emissions in the world. Trump's election, considered by ecologists and scientists as a dark day for climate and his return as “the biggest civilisation and climate step-back for our planet”, supplies a global fear regarding ecological stakes. The US were planning to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52% before 2030, however according to the calculations made by Carbon Brief, this goal would only reach a decrease of 28% of emissions under a second Trump’s mandate, creating many billions of tons of CO2 equivalents.

A disabling comeback for the EU, complicating the continuity of projects, cooperation, and reforms in fighting against global warming, undertaken by these two powers. Indeed, international negotiations regarding climate protection are one of the biggest priorities of the EU with for instance the European Green Deal presented by Ursula Von Der Leyen in December 2019. Many ecology defenders are calling for the EU or China to take the lead. However, the financial support of the US, for the succession of the environmental challenge, remains essential and the EU world struggle to lead by filling the necessary funds to the global ecologic transition. All American action regarding climate has global consequences and “Trump can deny climate change as much as he wants to, physics laws do not care about politics” stated the physicist Friederike Otto.

What future for the European economic market and digital regulation

From an economic point of view, the pronostics for the future of Europe and its relations with the US are pessimistic. To start with, the announcement of the elected president concerning the establishment of tariffs between 10 and 20% on all imported goods in his country has provoked a real thunderstruck, especially because the US, first client of the EU absorb 20% of it's exportations. According to economists, these economic policies are transcribing the protectionist promesses of the future President around the “American first” doctrine which could lead to a decrease of 1% of the GDP of the Euro zone, or even a depreciation of the Euro of 10% compared to the dollar according to the analysts of Goldman Sachs. Moreover, some persisting commercial conflicts regarding tariffs on steel and aluminium or green subventions for electric vehicles for instance might become worse under Trump’s administration. These scenarios highlight the disparities of economic impacts between different European nations. France is far from being exposed to economic perturbations but Germany is more vulnerable, followed by Italy and Finland.

The announcement of Elon Musk’s nomination, controversed personality, X’s owner and active support of Donald Trump as head of the Department of Government’s efficiency represents a turning point for the future of digital and it's regulations. Musk is already implicated in conflicts with the European Commission concerning the application of the 2023 “Digital Services Act” on the moderation and fight against misinformation on social media. If new tensions were to occur between Brussels and the new minister, the relations between Trump and the European Commission might worsen. This would lead to a surrender of the contribution from his side to the international efforts in the fight against proliferation and abusive use of commercial spy softwares. In the front line, the nomination of Brendan Carr as head of FCC telecommunications regulator, presented by Trump as a “warrior for free speech”also presents preoccupations. His intention to lead a crusade against what he calls “censorship cartel” leaves possibilities on future disagreements with the EU. Finally, the Council for market and technologies EU-US created in 2011 to help dialogue on topics like AI or cybersecurity does not have much chance to survive, risking to affect cyber-abilities of NATO.

By Antonin VERDOT, Nils GALES et Ulysse MARCILLAUD

Translated by Nina THEVENET

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